[SMM coal and coke daily brief review] 20250521

[SMM Daily Commentary on Coking Coal and Coke]

Coking Coal Market:

In Linfen, the quoted price for low-sulphur coking coal is 1,250 yuan/mt. In Tangshan, the quoted price for low-sulphur coking coal is 1,330 yuan/mt.

In terms of fundamentals, coal mines are generally operating normally, and the high inventory situation is unlikely to change in the short term, resulting in supply pressure. However, downstream buyers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with fewer new orders for coal mines. There is a general expectation of a weaker market outlook, and coking coal prices will continue to face downward pressure in the short term.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price for premium metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,625 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-premium metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,485 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for premium metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,290 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-premium metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,200 yuan/mt.

In terms of supply, most coking enterprises still have certain profits and are maintaining stable production. However, some coking enterprises are facing obstacles in shipping their products, leading to a slight accumulation of coke inventory and an increase in supply pressure. On the demand side, the finished steel market is gradually entering the off-season, with a slight decline in production enthusiasm. Additionally, most steel mills currently have medium to high levels of coke inventory and are cautious in purchasing, gradually increasing their desire to drive down coke prices. In summary, there is a slight accumulation of supply-demand imbalance in the coke market, and cost support is weakening. In the short term, coke prices will also continue to face downward pressure, with expectations for a second round of price reductions. [SMM Steel]